CICEET Progress Report for the period 3/01/09 Through 8/31/09
Project Title: Development of a Land Use Planning Tool for Estuarine Habitat Protection, Restoration and Cumulative Effects Assessment in North Puget Sound, WA
Principal Investigator(s): Tarang Khangaonkar (PNNL)
Co-principal investigators: Zhaoqing Yang, Cheegwan Lee, and Andrea Copping (PNNL); Kurt Fresh and Correigh Greene (NWMFS); Eric Beamer and Greg Hood (SRSC); Erick Grossman (USGS); Douglas Bulthuis (Padilla Bay – NERR)
Project Start Date: 7/01/2007
Report Compiled By: Cheegwan Lee, Zhaoqing Yang, and Tarang Khangaonkar
Contributing Team Members and Their Role in the Project:
Tarang Khangaonkar- Project manager
Zhaoqing Yang- Hydrodynamic modeling lead
Cheegwan Lee- Fish tracking model developer
Andrea Copping - Outreach
Eric Beamer, Kurt Fresh, and Correigh Greene- Development of fish behavior rules and fish data collection
Douglas Bulthuis- Coordination of outreach activity
Eric Grossman- Physical data observation in the Whidbey basin
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Background and Motivation
Puget Sound is a large estuarine system under strong development pressure that suffers from a legacy of unplanned watershed and shoreline development, and lacks a comprehensive plan to incorporate future pressures including population growth and global climate change. Among the most important resources of Puget Sound that are currently threatened are the salmon populations that spawn in the rivers entering this inland fjord. Many populations of Puget Sound Chinook salmon are at historically low levels due to habitat loss caused by coastal land development activities including the construction of dikes and levees protecting agricultural and residential lands from flooding. Other impacts have occurred along shoreline areas due to dredging and filling of intertidal habitats. Therefore, juvenile fish habitat restoration projects are of great concern in the Puget Sound coastal area for land-use planners. In general, these efforts suffer from a lack of information about how to assess the feasibility of various restoration and protection options and the implications of proposed changes on key resources such as salmon and existing and alternate land uses. Project managers, scientists, land owners and engineers from various partnering agencies involved in Puget Sound nearshore restoration activities agree on the need for more oceanographic information to help the planning and decision-making process. This project is based on our understanding of this need and providing the required help to the land-use planners Objectives
The overall objective of this project is to develop a practical tool that will enable land-use planners to effectively address their concerns with respect to planning coastal development and restoration projects. The tool we proposed primarily consists of 1) hydrodynamic and constituent transport model and 2) an interactive user interface which a land-use planner can easily use to examine oceanographic properties and movement of particles for specific restoration project sites. Also included in the scope is further development of the particle tracking tool to incorporate fish behavior and fish-like properties based on calibration to observed fish catch data
The scope of this project was designed for completion through two phases over a two-year period. Year 1 focused on the development and calibration of the Whidbey Basin-wide hydrodynamic model. Year 2 focuses on the development of fish-tracking tool and application of the model to a set of fish population data collected in the selected restoration sites in the basin, and training of partner and other stakeholder staff in the use of this tool for examining potential cumulative effects and impacts on planning.
Tasks Previously Completed
In the previous three reporting periods during 7/01/2007 to 2/31/2009, the tasks of data acquisition, hydrodynamic model setup, model calibration for Whidbey Basin, basin scale cumulative impact of restoration project, and public outreach workshop were completed (see the model domain and grid in Figure 1). During the first period (7/01/2007~3/01/2008) the project team collected and processed available data required for developing a Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model. These data were processed and used in the development and calibration of the Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model. In the second reporting period (3/1/2008 ~ 8/31/08) the tasks of calibration of the hydrodynamic model for the Whidbey Basin were completed. Overall, the model calibration was considered sufficient and within acceptable level of accuracy for the second phase of the project. In the third reporting period (9/01/08 ~ 2/31/09) the tasks of basin scale cumulative impact of restoration projects and public outreach and stakeholder workshop were completed. In addition, progress was made in the development of the particle tracking utility (see Figure 2). The results show that the hydrodynamic responses due to multiple restoration projects are additive in the estuary, and the effect is nonlinear. The hydrodynamic response under restoration conditions depends on the size of the restoration area and the geometric configuration of the existing river channels. Through the public outreach workshop, most attendees concurred that they would rather see more effort on incorporation of fish behavior rules to improve the fish migration tool. The team members also concurred that incorporation of fish behavior based on fish migration data in Whidbey basin, was one of the most important components of this study. Therefore, the project team decided to focus the remainder of the project on the development of a biologically-sound fish behavior model.
Project Objectives for This Reporting Period
In this fourth reporting period (3/1/2009 through 8/31/2009), there were two major accomplishments 1) Progress in development of agent-event-based fish tracking model, and 2) stakeholder meeting.
1. Progress in development of agent-event-based fish tracking model
Although developing a comprehensive fish migration model was not the main objective of this project, based on the feedback in the public outreach workshop, , the project team, in consultation with CICEET, decided to focus the remainder of the project effort on the development of a biologically-sound fish behavior model (a major improvement over using passive particles as surrogate fish). The project team has begun gathering associated literature to support the development of a agent-event-based fish behavior model which will be linked to the independent hydrodynamic (Eulerian frame) and particle tracking model (Lagrangian frame). The Eulerian-Lagrangian-Agent Model (ELAM) framework was selected for the fish tracking modeling system. The conceptual diagram of ELAM modeling system is shown in Figure 3. This fish tracking modeling system is designed to mimic the preferential movement of individual fish based on an ELAM for mechanically decoding and forecasting 3-D movement patterns of individual fish responding to abiotic stimuli such as flow velocity, shear strain, and water quality variables. The fish tracking model is coupled with the Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model, developed as part of this CICEET project which calculates the hydrodynamic and water quality variables inputs for ELAM. A detailed flowchart of fish behavior model we have developed is presented in Figure 4. The brain of this fish tracking modeling system is an agent-based event driven fish behavior model (Anderson, 2002) . In this framework, the environment surrounding a fish is described in terms of agents representing the hydrodynamic and water quality variables, and habitat condition. Fish behavior is decoded in two modes responding to the stimulus of an agent exceeding a threshold level, exhibiting either tactical or strategic behavior. Once a fish perceives an agent, the fish responds whether or not the stimuli exceed a threshold. Possible event outcomes depend on actions which have benefits and costs. At present, we have completed initial development of this modeling system and conducted a series of numerical tests by assuming ideal cases. The mathematical formulation of this fish behavior model was tested with ideal environment condition. Results of the model tests for the algorithms are presented in Figure 5.
2. Public Outreach and Stakeholder Meeting
In December of 2008, the project team held a meeting with stakeholders (including CO-PIs from NOAA, SRSC, and Padilla Bay NERR) to discuss the change in project focus that resulted from input from the workshop held in September of 2008 and plan next steps. It was also the objective of this meeting to develop a detailed technical plan for the biologically-influenced fish behavior model. At this meeting, CO-PIs from NOAA and SRSC provided a summary of fish migration data that have been collected. It is expected that a subset of these data will be used for model validation. The data needed for the validation of the fish tracking model were identified as follows.
- GIS maps with locations of data collection stations;
- Location and size information of habitats including blind channels, and pocket estuaries; and
- Salmon migration data (Year 2002).
The project team acknowledged that the effort to develop and validate the model will be extensive, requiring laborious iterative application of the model and comparison with fish data. We have decided to utilize 2002 data for our initial effort. Subsequent progress will depend on the success of preliminary comparison of model predictions with measured salmon data, and the remaining budget.
Knowledge dissemination activities during this reporting period.
No papers or publications were completed. However, two abstracts have been accepted for oral presentation at the upcoming CERF conference in November 2009, in Portland, OR.
Khangaonkar T, Z Yang, C Lee, and A Copping. 2009. "Development of A Nearshore Habitat Restoration and Fish Migration Pathway Modeling Tool ." Abstract submitted to The Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation , 20th Biennial Conference: CERF 2009, Portland, WA. PNNL-SA-66376.
Copping AE, T Khangaonkar, SH Geerlofs, and D Bulthuis. 2009. "Tools for land use and estuarine restoration planning: hydrodynamic modeling and fish tracking." PNWD-SA-8616 Battelle—Pacific Northwest Division, Richland, WA.
Have the results/data gathered during this reporting period indicated that a change to your original approach is necessary? If so, who was involved in the decision-making process? Please explain.
No new change in approach or direction occurred as a result of results or data gathered during this period. As described earlier (in the last reporting period) the project team concurred on a change in the focus and emphasis, based on comments provided by stakeholders.
Please describe collaboration activities with target stakeholders during this period. Has interaction with stakeholders during this period brought about any changes to the project? Have the stakeholders confirmed the relevance of the technology or approach you are working on?
During this reporting period our focus has been on the technical development of the fish tracking model. Our outreach efforts were combined with the project technical team meeting. Many of the CO-PIs are also stakeholders. Additional outreach efforts included PI visits with local groups involved in nearshore restoration efforts for salmon population recovery. This included a notable visit to the neighboring Bellingham Bay Action Team, and visits to various Marine Resources Committees (MRC) around the Puget Sound region. The San Juan County MRC, People for Puget Sound and Bellingham Bay Action Team have expressed an interest in utilizing the CICEET product when it is completed. The Bellingham Bay Action Team would like to apply the fish tool developed through this project to Nooksack River fish migration data.
Project objectives for next reporting period
In this reporting period, we made progress in the initial development of the basic framework for the ELAM fish tracking model. In the next reporting period, the project team will incorporate into the software, a set of local fish migration rules determined based on the fish data collected at the project site into the model. There are a number of qualitative and limited quantitative studies that provide information on the preferences of migrating fish to salinity, temperature, velocity, and availability of habitat. For example, the fish migration data indicates that size (~8 cm) is a critical parameter which makes the fishes leave freshwater habitat during their passage through a delta and move out into Puget Sound. This development effort will be coordinated with fish biologists in NOAA and other stakeholder groups.
The Specific objectives during the next reporting period are:
- Complete Fish Tracking Model (FVCOM-ELAM) Using SRSC/NOAA Fish Data
- Incorporate fish behavior rules (tactical and strategic);
- Calibrate fish tracking model using Skagit Bay data; and
- Apply the model to Skagit Bay, Padilla Bay, and Whidbey Basin restoration projects.
- Preparation of the project report / papers
Work plan to meet objective
A no-cost extension was awarded by CICEET; all study tasks are now on a new schedule. Our plan is to stick to the schedule below to ensure timely completion of Phase 2 activities.
Task 5: Meetings and Stakeholder Outreach – Periodic Meetings with project partners, stake holders, and other collaborators on an as needed basis.
Task 7: Fish-like Particle Tracking Desktop Utility – expected completion date: December 30, 2009.
Task 8: Study Report – expected completion date: February 29, 2010
Please describe any activities, accomplishments, or obstacles not addressed in other sections of this report that you feel are important for CICEET to know about.
None.