CICEET Progress Report for the period 9/01/08 Through 2/15/09

Project Title: Development of a Land Use Planning Tool for Estuarine Habitat Protection, Restoration and Cumulative Effects Assessment in North Puget Sound, WA
Principal Investigator(s): Tarang Khangaonkar (PNNL)
Additional Investigator(s): Zhaoqing Yang and Andrea Copping (PNNL); Kurt Fresh and Correigh Greene (NWMFS); Eric Beamer and Greg Hood (SRSC); Erick Grossman (USGS); Douglas Bulthuis (Padilla Bay ­ NERR)
Project Start Date: 7/01/2007
Report Compiled By:Cheegwan Lee, Zhaoqing Yang, and Tarang Khangaonkar

Figures

Figure 1

Figure 2

The overall objective of this project is to develop an interactive practical tool that will enable land-use planners to effectively address their concerns with respect to planning coastal development and restoration projects. The practical tool we proposed primarily consists of 1) hydrodynamic and constituent transport model and 2) an interactive user interface which a land-use planner can easily use to examine oceanographic properties and movement of fish-like particles for specific restoration project sites.

The scope of this project was designed for completion through two phases over a two-year period. Year 1 focused on the development and calibration of the Whidbey Basin-wide hydrodynamic model. Year 2 focuses on the development of fish-tracking tool and application of the model to a selected set of restoration projects in the basin and training of partner and other stakeholder staff in the use of this tool for examining potential cumulative effects and impacts on planning.

Tasks to meet objectives

Progress on Tasks
In the previous two reporting periods during 7/01/2007 to 8/31/2008, the tasks of data acquisition, hydrodynamic model setup, and model calibration for Whidbey Basin were completed (see the model domain and grid in Figure 1). During the first period (7/01/2007~3/01/2008) the project team collected and processed available data required for developing a Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model. The data included study domain geometry, bathymetry, shoreline definition, detailed LIDAR data, tidal marsh data, river flows and freshwater sources around the basin, tides and salinity, velocity distribution, and meteorological data. These data were processed and used in the development and calibration of the Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model. In the second reporting period (3/1/2008 ~ 8/31/08) the tasks of calibration of the hydrodynamic model for the Whidbey Basin were completed. Overall, the model calibration was considered sufficient and within acceptable level of accuracy for the second phase of the project.

In this third reporting period (9/1/2008 through 2/28/2009), the primary tasks completed were; 1) Assessment of basin-scale cumulative impacts of restoration projects, 2) Progress in the development of fish-like particle tracking desktop utility, and 3) Public outreach and stakeholder meeting / workshop.

1. Basin Scale Cumulative Impact of Restoration Projects ­ Application to Snohomish Basin.
The Snohomish River estuary in the Whidbey Basin, Washington, has a number of sites in close proximity, targeted for nearshore restoration. Snohomish River is the second largest river discharge into Puget Sound with an average annual river flow of 270 m³/s. The lower Snohomish River morphology consists of a number of braided sloughs that provide ideal wetland and fish habitat to support salmonid runs. To assess cumulative effects of restoration projects, the Whidbey Basin model was applied for the Qwuloolt Marsh, Smith Island, Union Slough, and Biringer Farm restoration projects under low-river-flow and high-river-flow conditions. Located relatively close to one another near the mouth of the estuary, these four projects form one of the largest restoration efforts in Washington. The results provided valuable information regarding potential effects on morphology, and marine habitat conditions under the influence of restoration projects. The results show that the hydrodynamic responses due to multiple restoration projects are additive in the estuary, and the effect is nonlinear. The hydrodynamic response under restoration conditions depends on the size of the restoration area and the geometric configuration of the existing river channels. Within a complex braided estuary such as the Snohomish River, the influence of a specific restoration project is not only experienced locally, but is also found to significantly affect tidal flow transport in all distributary branches within the system.

2. Progress in Development of Fish-like Particle Tracking Utility
To ensure that intended users (fish biologists and land-use-planners) have the ability to use and apply the fish migration tool, we selected an approach similar to the one successfully adopted by NOAA for oil spill trajectory analysis and emergence management. While there are a number of public domain and commercial softwares available for visualizing model results, choices are limited for public domain tools which allow the user to experiment with multiple scenarios themselves (without having to rely on numerical modeling experts). The NOAA tool for visualizing trajectories of oil spills allows the users to run scenarios using a previously computed hydrodynamic solution. The GNOME (General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment) is a desktop utility which allows the user to specify release locations and times and then predicts the motion and spreading of particles released. The tool uses neutrally buoyant particles to represent the spill itself. The motion of the neutrally buoyant particles forms the first step towards helping fish biologists and planners visualize the influence of hydrodynamics on migration trajectories of juvenile fish. The expectation is that at the larval stage, fish behave more or less like neutrally buoyant particles. As the fish grow, they develop the ability to swim and seek out preferred habitat based on their developmental stage.

A key component of this development is an automatic linkage between hydrodynamic model and GNOME to calculate and visualize movement of fish-like particle cloud. We developed the linkage between the Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model and GNOME during this period. The linked solutions for existing and restoration conditions were demonstrated in the workshop held for stakeholders. An example of the demonstration is shown in Figure 2. This example shows the fish-tracking tool user interface and movement of particles with a test scenario that released particles in the Skagit and Snohomish rivers.

3. Public Outreach and Stakeholder Workshop / Meeting
The project team invited a large group of stakeholders (including NOAA, SRSC, Padilla Bay NERR, local governments and non-profit environmental organizations, etc.) to a workshop on September 23, 2008, held at Padilla Bay NERR in Mt. Vernon, WA. The purpose of the workshop was to demonstrate the hands-on (neutrally buoyant passive) fish tracking model, to garner feedbacks on the tool, and to incorporate appropriate suggestions within available budgets and resources during the second phase of the project. In this workshop, we demonstrated Whidbey Basin modeling tool including hydrodynamic model solutions and GNOME. The tool-kit and instruction handouts were distributed to the attendees. Every attendee installed the fish-tracking tool to their laptops and had a chance to test it by themselves on several scenarios specified in the handout. We received considerable feedback from the users and their unique perspectives.

Subsequently, the project team gathered at PNNL to discuss next steps and reviewed feedback comments provided by stakeholders. A number of action items were outlined. It is important to note that much of the feedback centered on the passive particle tracking, its utility to fish migration work, and its validity for assessing the beneficial effects of nearshore restoration. Most attendees concurred that they would rather see more effort on incorporation of fish behavior rules to improve the fish migration tool. The team members also concurred that incorporation of fish behavior based on fish migration data in Whidbey basin, was one of the most important components of this study. Therefore, project team concluded that focus of the remainder of the project will be on the development of biologically-sound fish behavior model. The project team has begun gathering associated literature to support the development of an agent-event-based fish behavior model which will be connected to an independent particle tracking model.

Data Generated to date
The following data and results have been generated from activities during this reporting period.

• Initial development of fish-like particle tracking desktop utility
• Hydrodynamic assessment of cumulative impacts of restoration projects in Snohomish River
• Stakeholder Workshop

Project Objectives for Next Reporting Period
Although developing a comprehensive fish migration model is not the ultimate goal of this project, it is important to incorporate fish behavior in the particle tracking tool such that this "land-use-planning tool" is more valuable and useful to users who may not be experts in modeling. We propose delivering a particle tracking tool with fish-like properties, within limits of current understanding of fish migration behavior and the available budget. There are a number of qualitative studies that provide information on the preferences of migrating fish to salinity, temperatures, velocities, and availability of habitat. For example, we expect that fish size and time the fish are leave freshwater will be critical elements of how they behave during their passage through a delta and out into Puget Sound. There have also been previous attempts at applying different mathematical and statistical approaches such as Eulerian-Lagrangian-agent method to fish migration. We have reviewed the current literature on population behavior dynamics and in collaboration of with NOAA fisheries and SRSC are developing a set of rules. We will then work towards adding the fish rules to the particle tracking scheme such that the movement of the particles will attempt to mimic the known preference exhibited by local migration patterns in the Whidbey Basin.

Objectives
For the next reporting period, the objectives are as follows.
(a) Continuation of Task 5 Meetings and Stake holder Outreach activities.
(b) Continuation of Task 7: Development of Fish-Like Particle Tracking Desktop Utility.
(d) Preparation of Project Report

Work Plan to Meet Objectives
The study tasks are progressing on schedule and on budget. Our plan is to stay on track per schedule indicated below to ensure timely and on budget completion of Phase 2 activities.

Task 5: Meetings and Stakeholder Outreach ­ Periodic Meetings with project partners, stake holders, and other collaborators on an as needed basis.

Task 6: Assessment of Cumulative Impacts of Restoration Projects ­ The Whidbey Basin Model has been applied to assess the cumulative impact of multiple restoration projects in Snohomish River estuary. Therefore, remained resources will be focused on the development of fish behavior models.

Task 7: Fish-like Particle Tracking Desktop Utility ­ expected completion date: July 15, 2009.

Task 8: Study Report ­ expected completion date: August 31, 2009

Based on the feedbacks from last stakeholder outreach meeting and communication with fish biologists and planners, we will incorporate the fish-like properties into the particle desktop utility in our development tasks.

Expenditures
Expenditure to date is on track with proposed scope of work. Tasks in this reporting period are complete and the budgets have been used completely.