CICEET Progress Report for the period 3/01/08 Through 8/31/08
Project Title: Development of a Land Use Planning Tool for Estuarine Habitat Protection, Restoration and Cumulative Effects Assessment in North Puget Sound, WA
Principal Investigator(s): Tarang Khangaonkar (PNNL)
Additional Investigator(s): Zhaoqing Yang and Andrea Copping (PNNL); Kurt Fresh and Correigh Greene (NWMFS); Eric Beamer and Greg Hood (SRSC); Erick Grossman (USGS); Douglas Bulthuis (Padilla Bay NERR)
Project Start Date: Awarded by CICEET on Nov. 21, ‘05. URI start date: Dec. 28, ‘05.
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Objectives
Puget Sound is a large estuarine system under strong development pressure that suffers from a legacy of unplanned watershed and shoreline development, and lacks a comprehensive plan to incorporate future pressures including population growth and global climate change. Among of the most important resources of Puget Sound that are currently threatened are the salmon populations that spawn in rivers entering this inland fjord. Many populations of Puget Sound Chinook salmon are at historically low levels due to construction of dikes and levees protecting agricultural and residential lands from flooding. Other impacts have occurred along shoreline areas due to dredging and filling of intertidal habitats. Therefore, Juvenile fish habitat restorations are of great concern in the Puget Sound coastal area for land-use planners. In general these efforts suffer from a lack of information about how to assess the feasibility of various restoration and protection options and the implications of proposed changes on key resources such as salmon and existing and alternate land uses. Project managers, scientists, land owners and engineers from various partnering agencies involved in Puget Sound nearshore restoration activities are in consensus on the need for more oceanographic information to help planning and decision-making. This project is based on understanding this need and providing the required help to the land-use planners.
The overall objective of this project is to develop an interactive practical tool that will enable land-use planners to effectively address their concerns with respect to planning coastal development and restoration projects. The practical tool we proposed primarily consists of 1) hydrodynamic and constituent transport model and 2) an interactive user interface which a land-use planner can easily use to examine oceanographic properties and movement of fish-like particles for specific restoration project sites.
The scope of this project was designed for completion through two phases over a two-year period. Year 1 focuses on the development and calibration of the Whidbey Basin-wide hydrodynamic model. Year 2 will focus on the development of fish-tracking tool and application of the model to a selected set of restoration projects in the basin and training of partner and other stakeholder staff in examining potential cumulative effects and impacts on planning.
Tasks to meet objectives
In the previous reporting period (7/01/2007~2/28/2007), tasks of data acquisition and hydrodynamic model setup for Whidbey Basin were completed. The project team collected and processed available data required for developing a Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model. The data included study domain geometry, bathymetry, shoreline definition, detailed LIDAR data, tidal marsh data, river flows and freshwater sources around the basin, tides and salinity, velocity distribution, and meteorological data. These data were processed and used in the development and calibration of the integrated Whidbey Basin hydrodynamic model.
In this reporting period (3/1/2008 ~ 8/31/08) the tasks of calibration of the hydrodynamic and transport model for the Whidbey Basin were completed. The hydrodynamic model along with the associated hands-on particle tracking tool is now ready for application to specific restoration projects as part of Year 2 activities scheduled to begin 10/1/08. Project team meetings and stake holder outreach have also occurred side-by-side as ongoing project activities.
The hydrodynamic model for Whidbey Basin of Puget Sound, WA, was developed and set up for three different periods corresponding to the available data collection periods. The 3-D hydrodynamic model used in this study is the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) developed by the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth. A high resolution model grid covering the entire Whidbey basin and Padilla bay was developed (Figure 1). The model grid resolution gradually decreases away from the estuarine delta to the open boundaries to maintain the computational efficiency of the model. The model was set up for the calibration periods using forcing conditions such as tides at open boundaries, meteorological information, and river inflows at Skagit River, Stillaguamish River, and Snohomish River. Because of the existence of the intertidal mudflat region and the marshlands near the restoration project sites, wetting and drying processes were simulated in the model.
The calibration stations include locations near the restoration project sites, the mouths of the three major rivers (Skagit, Stillaguamish, and Snohomish) and sites covering basin-scale hydrodynamics in the Whidbey Basin (see Figure 2). The calibration periods are as follow:
- Skagit River and bay (SK1, SK2) 6/6/2005 ~ 6/23/2005
- Stillaguamish River and Port Susan bay (PS1 and PS2) 10/10/2005 ~ 10/26/2005
- Snohomish River and basin (SN1, SN2, SN3, SN4) 10/12/2006 ~ 10/28/2006
- Whidbey Basin Joint Survey (Salinity profile stations) 10/12/2006~10/26/2006
Model calibration was conducted primarily through matching model results to field data, by refining the model grid, geometry, and bathymetry and adjusting bottom roughness and the estimated boundary conditions. Specifically, the following comparisons of model prediction to the observed data were performed:
- Time series comparison of tide elevation
- Time series comparison of velocities
- Time series comparison of salinities
- Salinity profiles for available mooring stations.
Examples of calibration plots at Snohomish River station (SN1) for tidal elevation, velocities and salinities are presented in the Figure 3 through 5. Overall, model results matched the observed data at all stations very well. The model reproduced the hydrodynamic characteristics such as the diurnal inequality of tide, fresh water discharge plume and salinity intrusion at the mouth. For quantitative estimation of model calibration, the statistical errors for model prediction were calculated. The absolute error and root-mean-square error (RMS) are provided in Table 1. Overall, the model calibration errors for tide are within 8 % of the tidal ranges from MLLW to MHHW. Errors for velocity are mostly within 0.15 m/s. The signatures of neap-spring tidal cycle and diurnal inequality were observed in the collected data as well as model results. Errors for salinity are also in the acceptable range of 0.12 ~ 5.7 ppt. The model captured the interaction between surface freshwater plume and bottom salt water during the tidal cycle. Overall, the model calibration is considered sufficient for the next phase of the project including application to assess the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects.
Community outreach: After “Kickoff” meeting held at Padilla Bay NERR on January 28, 2008, we have continued to communicate with the stakeholders and received feedback on the project to ensure that the tool being developed is beneficial to them and the respective communities. Based on feedback provided by Padilla Bay NERR, we have incorporated high resolution bathymetry data in the Padilla bay region. Potential issues in developing the fish-like particle tracking model were discussed with fish biologists from Skagit River System Cooperative (SRSC) and NOAA Fisheries scientists. Field data on migration of juvenile salmon have been collected by SRSC and NOAA Fisheries. The potential usage of these data for development of fish-like particle tracking model is under discussion. For the next phase of the project, the project team seeks more specific inputs from stakeholders. The project team has invited the stakeholders to a workshop on September 23, 2008 at Padilla Bay NERR in Mount Vernon, WA. The purpose of the workshop is to preview the results of the hydrodynamic model, and to garner input on preferred outcomes for the land-use management tool to be developed during the second year of the project.
Data Generated to date
The following data and results have been generated from model calibration activities.
- Oceanographic data sets generated by model application for calibration periods
- Comparisons of model results with observed water surface elevation, velocities, and salinity at calibration stations.
Project Objectives for Next Reporting Period
Objectives
For the next reporting period, the objectives are as follows
(a) Continuation of Task 5 Meetings and Stake holder Outreach activities.
(b) Task 6: Assessment of Cumulative Impacts of Restoration Projects.
(c) Task 7: Development of Fish-Like Particle Tracking Desktop Utility.
Work Plan to Meet Objectives
The study tasks are progressing on schedule and on budget. Our plan is to stay on track per schedule indicated below to ensure timely and on budget completion of Phase 2 activities.
Task 5: Meetings and Stakeholder Outreach Periodic Meetings with project partners, stake holders, and other collaborators on an as needed basis.
Task 6: Assessment of Cumulative Impacts of Restoration Projects expected completion date: November 31, 2008.
Task 7: Fish-Like Particle Tracking Desktop Utility expected completion data: February 15, 2009.
Through the stakeholder outreach meetings and communication with fish biologist and planners, we plan to gather the feedbacks regarding the development of fish-like particle desktop utility and to incorporate them into our development tasks.
Expenditures
Expenditure to date is on track with proposed scope of work. Tasks in this reporting period are complete and the budgets have been used completely.