CICEET Progress Report for the period 3/01/08 Through 8/31/08

Project Title: Applying multiple models to inform watershed management and land use planning a coastal community
Principal Investigator(s): Kathleen B. Boomer, Xuyong Li, Latif Kalin, Donald E. Weller
Project Start Date: 09/01/07
Report compiled by: K. Boomer

Project Progress During This Reporting Period
Objectives
During the second period of our CICEET project, we planned to complete calibration of four watershed models and use the results to assess impacts from alternative land cover scenarios in the Queenstown area. We also planned to continue our dialogue with Queenstown and Queen Anne’s County while providing outreach to broader audiences.

Progress on Tasks
Model set-up, calibration, and application: Calibrating the watershed models, including GWLF, SWAT, and LTHIA, has taken more time than we anticipated, partly due to the added complexity associated with the flat terrain in the coastal study area. As is described in the Section IV of this report (Additional Information), the GWLF calibration has been completed and additional analyses to assess potential climate change impacts have been evaluated. The SWAT model calibration is expected to be completed by October, 2008. We will compare both calibrated and non-calibrated SWAT predictions to assess the value of the additional effort required for calibration. The LTHIA model is still in an early implementation stage. Finally, the HSPF Phase 5 model calibration should be completed by December, 2008. In addition to developing the watershed model set, we worked with a summer intern to assess alternate strategies for quantifying critical hydrological parameters. Hee Seo evaluated alternate strategies for using regional landscape metrics to estimate groundwater separation, a major uncertainty in estimating flow in all watershed models.

Assessment of Alternative Future Land Cover Scenarios: During the past six months, we have worked with the Town’s Planning Commission to develop a digital dataset depicting hydrologic sub-basins relevant to the Town’s planning concerns. In addition, we have developed spatial datasets describing alternative future growth patterns. The first scenario assumes growth is equally distributed throughout the entire planning area. The second and third scenarios concentrate growth around the existing municipality, but each directs growth into one or the other of the two watersheds encompassed by the Planning Area.

Outreach Tasks
1. We have continued to provide regular project updates during semi-monthly Planning Commission meetings.

2. We have opened a dialogue with the Town Planner for the Town of Greensboro, MD, located in our calibration watershed. Recent legislation by the State of Maryland requires each municipality to prepare a Water Resources Element, including a characterization of potential nutrient and sediment contributions from non-point sources. The Town is interested in our efforts because results will provide the information needed for to fulfill this requirement.

3. X. Li presented “GWLF model automatic calibration and prediction of water and nutrient discharges from Coastal Plain Subwatersheds of Chesapeake Bay” to the Chesapeake Community Modeling Program at their Chesapeake Modeling Symposium on May 12-14, 2008 in Annapolis, MD.

Difficulties in accomplishing tasks:
We originally estimated three months to set-up and calibrate our four watershed models, but this task has required an additional four to five months of effort. As we near the completion of our first year on the project, we will be able to begin assessing the alternative land use scenarios. Already, we have begun to organize model results to compare predictions under current land cover conditions. This should facilitate efforts to synthesize the additional output and develop average predictions for use in the source prioritization effort. Despite our set-backs, we have reevaluated our timeline (please see Section III, Additional Information), and we anticipate that we can complete the project within the two year grant period.

Data Generated
None to report.

Project Objectives for next reporting period

Technical objectives and tasks:
During the first three months of the project’s third quarter, we will complete the model calibrations and apply the end models to predict non-point source discharge under current land cover conditions through out the entire study area. We also will evaluate alternative future land cover scenarios in the Queenstown area. During the following three months, results from the independent modeling efforts will be combined to derive a model average and associated uncertainty estimates. These results will be the basis for the source prioritization analysis.

Outreach objectives and tasks:
We will continue to contribute project updates and attend semi-monthly Planning Commission meetings on an as-needed basis. We also will pursue the opportunity to work with the Town of Greensboro, Queen Anne’s County, and the Corsica River Restoration group.

Expenditures
To date, expenditures for personnel compensation at SERC amount to $58,677. An additional $320 was spent for registration at the Chesapeake Modeling Symposium on May 12-14, 2008 in Annapolis, MD. We also provided Auburn University with $77,961 for the first contract year.